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November 15.2025

2 Minutes Read

Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft Revenue Deal: Examining $865M Payments

OpenAI Microsoft revenue sharing, businessperson giving thumbs up.

The Financial Dynamics Behind the OpenAI-Microsoft Deal

Recent leaked documents have shed significant light on the financial relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft, revealing that OpenAI paid Microsoft a staggering $865.8 million in revenue-sharing payments in just the first three quarters of 2025. This is a remarkable increase from the $493.8 million reported for the entirety of 2024. This information amplifies the discussions surrounding the financial intricacies of the booming AI sector, notably as OpenAI gears up for a potential trillion-dollar IPO.

Understanding Revenue Shares and Financial Projections

According to Ed Zitron, the tech blogger who published the documents, OpenAI shares approximately 20% of its revenue with Microsoft, which invested over $13 billion in the AI company. Using this revenue-sharing model, one can deduce that OpenAI’s revenue may have climbed to at least $4.33 billion during the first nine months of 2025. In contrast, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has projected the company’s annual revenue to exceed $20 billion and possibly reach $100 billion by 2027, a figure that raises eyebrows and questions about sustainability in an industry that currently experiences ballooning operational costs.

Inference Costs: A Cause for Concern?

While revenue growth looks appealing, the leaked data also highlights OpenAI's inferred computing costs, which appear to be unsustainably high. Zitron estimates the inference costs alone could reach approximately $8.65 billion in the first nine months of 2025, escalating from about $3.8 billion the previous year. Given that inference is primarily dependent on cash flow, OpenAI might be grappling with expenses that outweigh its income—a precarious situation considering the heightened financial scrutiny surrounding AI enterprises.

Market Positioning and Long-term Implications

This complicated landscape has prompted speculation about an AI bubble, especially when high-profile companies like OpenAI might still be operating at a loss amidst significant revenue spikes. As competitors emerge, including Google and potential players in the AI arena, the financial health of OpenAI will be pivotal not only for its own valuation but for the broader sentiment in the tech industry about AI investments.

Final Thoughts on OpenAI's Financial Future

As OpenAI navigates this turbulent period, investors and stakeholders will be watching closely to see if they can sustain their explosive growth while managing costs. With a projected IPO on the horizon, the implications of this financial scrutiny could determine not only the future of OpenAI but also the viability of numerous AI startups vying for investor interest in this rapidly evolving sector.

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Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft Revenue Deal: Examining $865M Payments

The Financial Dynamics Behind the OpenAI-Microsoft Deal

Understanding Revenue Shares and Financial Projections

Inference Costs: A Cause for Concern?

Market Positioning and Long-term Implications

Final Thoughts on OpenAI's Financial Future

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